Bolton Wanderers vs Carlisle United - match preview

Bolton Wanderers vs Carlisle United 

 Bolton Wanderers will take on Carlisle United at the Toughsheet stadium on Saturday at 3:00pm in a game they need to win comfortably. So far this season, Carlisle have won just 1 game, drawn 5 and lost 5, giving them 8 points and sitting in 20th place.

Tactics

Carlisle are a very interesting team, on paper they aren't the best side and look like a team that belong at the bottom of the table. The statistics also show this, creating the 3rd least expected goals this season, with 5.74, and they have conceded 8.23 expected goals against (Bolton have conceded 6.89). Statistically, Carlisle average 44.1% possession per 90 - this shows that they are very counter attacking. Also, the graph below (taken from the Opta Stats hub here) shows just how counter attacking Carlisle are. In simple terms, Carlisle hold onto the ball for an average of 2.2 passes. 

Despite this, they have shown signs of being able to play nice football to break quickly, for example:

The ball starts in the corner and the Carlisle players are actually outnumbered currently, that is until the midfielder drops off of his man to create space for himself. As soon as the furthest left player passes the ball, he begins his run, which in-turn creates more space for the other players. 

As the midfielder receives the ball, another player drifts off of their man to get just enough space to pass the ball if they are passed to, which they are. The first man continues to make his run, so he can become an option for the next man.

The midfielder plays the pass backwards to the man who has made the yard. He has scanned and can play the ball first time to the man who started the move. This is simply beautiful football and helped start a counter attack for Carlisle. Almost every team in the league wouldn't be able to do anything about this, great play.

Carlisle have played both a back 5 and back 4 system this season and it isn't obvious which system they will play against Bolton but I would estimate it will be the back 5. This will make the defensive structure suit the Bolton attacking structure better so that gaps aren't left, however these gaps exist no matter their formation. 

As you can see here, Carlisle are disorganised at the back against Derby County - while playing their back 5 system. The gap in the right half space is huge and Derby make a run, that isn't spotted and the midfielder can make the pass easily. The Carlisle player has to press while shutting off the passing lane and the gap behind him can't be that big.