Why Ian Evatt WILL be a Premier League manager
This in-depth piece is a full analysis on Ian Evatt's managerial style, techniques and the challenges that he has faced along the way. This is in partnership with The Fanzone Podcast, who are a Bolton Wanderers fan podcast for the people, view their website here.
Ian Evatt was a good footballer who played in all four professional divisions of English football, including the Premier League with Derby County and Blackpool. His last playing season was in the 17/18 League Two season with Chesterfield FC, he played a key part in that season, captaining the team stepping in as the caretaker manager for the end of the season. Unfortunately, they did get relegated but this was the start of Ian Evatt's managerial career.
AFC Barrow
Evatt was only out of work for one month before AFC Barrow came calling for his services, in the 17/18 Barrow avoided relegation to the national league north by just 1 point. AFC Barrow was also struggling financially (big understatement) and the chairman (Casson) sold the club in October 2018. In an interview Ian Evatt completed with Coaches Voice (the interview can be found on their website here) Evatt said "The only thing was, they were cutting the budget in half; they only had four contracted players and no coaching staff at all...And there were only five weeks until the start of the season.", this was clearly a massive challenge for any manager, especially someone taking on their first ever full-time job. However, he only "wanted to be a first-team manager" and cut his holiday short and flew home.
The first challenge
With "only four contracted players and no coaching staff at all", Evatt had a big job on his hands to even make a squad before the start of the season; his starting point was finding an assistant. After interviewing a total of seven candidates, Evatt appointed Peter Atherton - for some managers the assistant is just another first team coach but for Evatt it has always been an important position. In his words Atherton "has turned out to be my best piece of recruitment so far. He has been so good for me", obviously this may not be the case anymore but to even say these words emphasises how crucial his coaching staff are to any project or team he is apart of, and this hasn't changed at Bolton Wanderers.
Despite the "shoe-string" budget and lack of options, with so little time left in the window, Evatt still wanted to stick to his philosophies of football: a possession-based, attacking style of football. Many claimed that he "simply cannot succeed in the National League by playing possession football", unfortunately the team statistics aren't available for the national league.
From the few statistics that are available, you can see the impact that Evatt had on the Barrow team, with Joel Dixon keeping a clean sheet in half of the games he played in (28) that season, for a tenth place team, that is almost unheard of. It is easy to see that his philosophy was immediately set out to the team, in the first game Barrow had changed their style of play to suit the "Evatt" style.
You can see how much space this man is in, after the ball has been switched to the right hand side, there is also an overload - a 3 vs 2 situation. This means that Barrow should be able to progress the ball easily on this side, Evatt (and all managers) love overloads because of this. Obviously, he won't have had a lot of training time with these players but he still manages to create a pattern of play with positional rotation.
A player (not in the second frame) rotates over and finds himself on the ball with a through ball ahead, the width created has left this space for him. The ball is perfectly played into his feet and then it is simple, cut in and goal. Great play and Ian Evatt will be very happy with how he has created this ball-playing ability, in his first competitive fixture. However, it wasn't completely plain sailing for Evatt this season: by the start of December, Barrow had only won seven games including losses to teams they needed to beat (Maidstone and Dagenham and Redbridge). They had also drawn 4 games, meaning that they had lost 12 games; Evatt was under pressure and with the new owners just in, his future was uncertain. Despite this, Evatt remained focused and in December won manager of the month: including wins against (2nd and 3rd) place Solihull Moors and Salford City.At the end of the season, Barrow has secured a tenth place finish; this was wildly above expectations, with the board only hoping to avoid relegation. "But I wasn't happy. Not at all", the words of a man with a plan to return Barrow to league football, the words of a man with huge ambition, the words of a man who wanted more.
Season Two
The first problem Evatt identified with his current team was creating chances, to many they would assume that the midfield is the problem but Evatt chose to look for a striker. He wanted someone "who could both stretch the opposition by threatening in behind but was also able to drop in and link play" , Scott Quigley was identified and then brought in. The Blackpool man helped Evatt transform the playing style even more, he was able to "commit fully" to being a possession-based side and ,through this, he could push the defensive line higher and play with a high press. However, this didn't go very well at first.
Barrow took just seven points from the first nine games, they were weak defensively and very poor from set pieces. This is when Evatt changed from his 4-2-3-1 formation to a back 3 system, a 3-4-1-2 that he uses at Bolton as well: they now had an extra defender on the pitch and the striker had another man to play off. From here, AFC Barrow went on a great run (winning 11 out of the next 12 games) and by November they were top of the league! The great form continued and Barrow won the league and won promotion back to the football league for the first time in 48 years, in just two years Evatt had turned a relegation side into a title winning team.
Bolton Wanderers
After his success with Barrow, Evatt had offers from many different clubs - turning down offers "from as high as league one" however, "Bolton were very difficult to say no to". In his own words, "It was tough to leave Barrow but this was such a great opportunity", so Evatt took over a Bolton side on the 1st of July 2020 that had just finished bottom of League One.
In the season prior to Evatt joining, Bolton were handed a 12 points deduction because they entered administration and their ownership was up in the air. Only a day after Bury were expelled from the football league, Bolton were given 14 weeks to find a new owner or at least prove that they could be funded for the coming season. Thankfully, on the 28th of August Bolton Wanderers released a statement saying "We are pleased to announce the sale of Bolton Wanderers to Football Ventures (whites) Limited has been completed" for a reported figure of £10 million. After this, chairman Sharron Brittan was appointed and the rest was history.
The first season
After a chat with Brittan, Evatt was "convinced that their views were aligned" and took the job, but it didn't come without difficulties. Similarly to at Barrow, the expectations were very low for Evatt due to a small budget and a lack of signed on players who suited Ian Evatt. The global pandemic seriously restricted what Bolton could do in the transfer market and a salary cap made it even harder to attract the right profile of players for Evatt's expansive tactics. However, Evatt stook to his principles but altered it slightly to an even slower possession-based approach but it didn't go very well.
It wasn't bringing very good results and Bolton picked up just 10 points by the start of November, from a possible 33, this simply wasn't good enough and Evatt was being questioned. An incident in a post-match interview also created unnecessary controversy about him and appointing him as a manager. After a 1-1 draw against Cambridge United, Ian Evatt came out in the interview and was asked about Fleetwood loanee William Crellin. The 17 year old goalkeeper made a horrific error for the Cambridge goal, Crellin went to punch the ball but missed after a slight push and it rolled over the line. Bolton had only 1 win in the league by this point and this win would've been crucial but it ended in a draw. Evatt was asked about the incident in the post match interview and said that he is a "fantastic young goalie" but made too many mistakes that were costing the team, telling him to "man up". Evatt received a lot of criticism for this and apologised very quickly after the event, saying "the terminology was incorrect so I apologise for that" and "this isn't kids football anymore".
Finally, form picked up in November and only dropped 1 point from 5 games. However, Bolton still sat at 17th in mid-January. The recruitment was crucial to how this season would turn out and it saved Bolton. Crucial players like MJ Williams, Kieran Lee and Oladapo Afolayan were brought in, also bringing George Thomason back off of his loan was a very good decision. After January, Bolton went on a 13 game unbeaten run, only drawing 3 games as well; everything was coming together and everything was going right. This run helped Bolton secure a 3rd place finish and promotion to League One, this was not expected in season one and it was down to recruitment and Ian Evatt.
The tactics and statistics
Bolton Wanderers have come a long way under Ian Evatt and there current style of play has been the result of an evolution of what Evatt played in the first season. Bolton lost the opening game fixture against Forest Green Rovers and some of the statistics from that game are very interesting: for example, Bolton averaged 55% possession and we know that Evatt will want more than this to fully establish control. Also, they missed 3 out of 3 of their big chances in that game - something that just can't happen if you want to win games.
After watching the game, it is clear that Evatt hadn't imposed his vision on the team yet: the play was scruffy, there is no clear patterns of play, no composure at the back and it just isn't an Evatt team. However, there were positive signs to build on (creating 3 big chances) but he had a lot of work to do across the season to improve the playing style and develop the players. Another key thing, is that Ricardo Santos played on the right of the back 3. Obviously, Santos now plays in the middle of the 3 because of his height, strength, power and pace, as well as his on the ball qualities, having someone who can be incredibly progressive and dominant is crucial in the middle of the 3, in an Evatt system. Alex Baptiste played as the CCB for Bolton in League Two that season and played 0.3 key passes per game, with an average of 43.5 passes per game; in comparison to Ricardo Santos so far this season, 0.8 key passes (very high for a centre back) and an average of 63.7 passes per game. For reference, the average amount of key passes for a centre back is 0.25 per game, meaning Baptiste was above average, also meaning that Ricardo Santos is a master of progression. John Stones is in the 92nd percentile for key passes, with 0.5 per game, meaning that Ricardo Santos will be in at least the 95th percentile (these stats aren't available in League One). Having someone who is as good as him at key passes (a pass that directly leads to a shot) is so crucial for any top side, especially an Evatt one.
By the end of the season, they were dominating the ball a lot more (58% in last game of the season), shooting a lot more (23 shots in the last game) and they kept their creativity (creating 3 big chances in the last game). It is important to note that the opposition did get a red card in the last game but the statistics were similar in other games as well. Obviously, this wasn't the best Ian Evatt Bolton side but it was a lot better than the start of the season, especially defensively. In the first ten games Bolton conceded 16 goals and in the last 10 games they conceded just 6 goals - a big improvement and part of the success of that season. As Sir Alex Ferguson famously said, the attack wins you games but the defence wins you titles.
Back to League One
Just before we visit the 21/22 season for Bolton Wanderers, it is important to look on the appointment of Chris Markham as the club's Technical Performance Director in February 2021. He has been crucial to the success that Bolton have had since he was appointed, with his data driven approaches. His data approach comes from his time at Huddersfield Town under a different role, from 2009-2017 he was Head of Performance Analysis. After this, he was Games Insight Lead at the FA and was very important in England reaching the England 2018 world cup and the 2020 European Championships - clearly he has a lot of pedigree in the game. Also, Huddersfield were promoted to the Championship and the Premier League while Markham was at the club.
In the Training Ground Guru Podcast (episode 52, here) Ian Evatt and Chris Markham sat down together and discussed data, style of play, etc. I have picked up some key quotes that underline how important Chris is to Bolton and exactly what his job is. But for even more insight check out the full podcast
The first quote is, "We speak a lot" we being Evatt "about our performances and games of other teams" also, "we can quickly remove players we don't think fit the profile to play for us". I think the wording that he uses here is the most important part of the quote, the repetition of 'we' shows just how important Markham is to Bolton and to Evatt: they analyse games together, they have the same tactical principles and they trust each other's opinions and views. This is why Bolton recruitment in recent years has been so good, even if the players don't hit the ground running, almost all eventually come good because they fit the profile - tactically and mentality-wise.
The podcast covers a full segment on the use of data and how crucial it is to the everyday operations of modern football clubs and Bolton. "People are quick to assume that you don't look at video" (when referring to using data) "couldn't be further from the truth"; as an (amateur) analyst myself, a lot of people do have this misconception but that would limit you massively. Data and statistics never tell the full story, but alongside video, they can be used to form a judgement on tactics, play style and their effectiveness in a given side. He goes onto say "We are doing things slightly differently here in that we try and collect our own data" this is very interesting and shows the size of the performance analysis department at Bolton. By collecting your own data, it can set you apart from the rest because you can collect different metrics and statistics that could be more specific to your team. For example, field tilt is a new metric that collects data on the passes in the final third of the pitch, with this approach Markham could have been collecting this data for a long time and may use it to collect data in each phase of play or zone of the pitch. Markham has said that he sees himself as "when it comes to data as being the translator" - meaning that his role is to 'translate' the data that the performance analysis department collects and relays it to Evatt and the coaching staff in a way that they can understand. Obviously, coaches can work on weaknesses of the team or opposition so 'translating' this into a way that makes sense to them is only good for the team.
When they talk about their recruitment it is very interesting and it shows that they have a detailed strategy for attributes, as well as their personality. Markham said "We go for the ones that have a real point to prove" - this shows how crucial the determination and ambition characteristics are for Bolton. A lot of clubs go wrong because they sign players with a poor attitude or personality (Manchester United) and this "bad egg" can turn the rest of the players against the manager. He goes onto say "Loans are really important" and he is right, especially for clubs in lower leagues, loans can be used to try out a player before buying them or even just for one season because they fit the playing style.
On the pitch
At the start of this campaign, Evatt used a back 4 system (4-2-3-1) and brought in 9 senior players to assist this change of formation. Joel Dixon was brought in as the first choice goalkeeper from Evatt's former club AFC Barrow (of course, he could play in either system). At the back, George Johnston was brought in from Netherlands but he did play as a centre back (in a 4) for Wigan the season before; Will Aimson and Declan John were also signed on. Josh Sheehan was signed on a free transfer from Newport County (what a signing) and Oladapo Afoylan joined the club from West Ham on a permanent deal. The two other permanent transfers were Elias Kachunga from Sheffield Wednesday and Bakayoko from Coventry.
For a newly promoted side, Bolton were playing well, winning 2, drawing 2 and losing just 1 from their first 5 games back in League One. However, after this the form derailed and Bolton were struggling and in January Evatt changed the system, with the help of recruitment, to the same formation they play now (a 3-4-1-2) Evatt reverted to the system that had had a lot of success for him. James Trafford (a more progressive, ball-playing goalkeeper) was brought in on loan from Manchester City, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson was also brought in on a free transfer from Millwall. Dion Charles was signed for big money from Accrington Stanley and Kyle Dempsey and Aaron Morley were both brought in midfield from Gillingham and Rochdale respectively. The change of system proved to be a good decision, with Bolton winning 8 of the next 10, drawing 1 and losing 1. Dion Charles was a great pick-up, scoring 8 goals by the end of the season and helping Bolton secure a 9th place finish. For their first season back in League One (and Evatt's first time) this was a great finish, that could build for the future and the next season. Also, in the last 22 games (after the change of formation) Bolton scored 44 goals, compared to the 30 goals that they scored in the 24 games before.
22/23 and 23/24
At the start of this season, Evatt re-signed James Trafford on loan, this was a great signing: only conceding 36 goals in the league and keeping 22 clean sheets. Conor Bradley was also brought in on loan for this season (from Liverpool) and he played a key role as the right wing back scoring 5 goals and getting 4 assists. On permanent deals, Jack Iredale was brought in on a free transfer from Cambridge United and Eoin Toal was signed for an undisclosed fee from Derry City. It took Toal a while to establish himself but after he did, he played in 22 games - keeping 11 clean sheets.
Despite the disappointing ending, this was a very successful campaign for Bolton Wanderers, including winning the EFL trophy in fashion, a 4-0 win saw Bolton dominate Plymouth Argyle (for full analysis check my pinned tweet). Bolton also made it into the playoffs (with a 5th place finish) however, they were knocked out in the semi final against Barnsley. They drew 1-1 at home and lost 1-0 away from home, the performances were poor and perhaps it shows the inexperience and potential lack of leadership in the squad. It could be argued that last season was too early to go up to the Championship and Bolton will be looking to go up this season.
The recruitment in January of this season showed the start of the financial backing from the board and the owners. Victor Adeboyejo was signed for £500k and hasn't been amazing so far but the willingness to spend that much on one player shows how supportive the board are Evatt and his recruitment staff. This financial support has continued into this season with a big summer window, with 3 signings that cost 6 figures: Carlos Mendes Gomes for £300k, Will Forrester for an undisclosed fee and Dan Nlundulu for another unknown fee. Josh Dacres Cogley, Nathan Baxter and Joel Coleman were also brought in for free transfers.
This spending has also continued in the form of new contracts for several key players in the squad, most notably Dion Charles. Charles has signed a new deal to stay at the club until June 2026 and Bolton held off interest from the Championship to stay at the League One outfit. The striker has probably been the best player so far this season and without him, the attack would have been significantly worse. Another player to secure a new deal is Josh Sheehan, Sheehan could be the best midfielder in League One (my opinion) and his creativity from deep is unmatched - keeping him at the club was crucial. George Thomason has also secured a new contract for Bolton and the young midfielder offers something completely different to every other midfielder at the club, since the departure of MJ Williams. Thomason has been touted as a future captain and it is clear to see why from his playing style and his passion. George Johnston is another player to secure a new contract for Bolton, the centre back will miss the majority of the season and a new deal shows just how important he is to Evatt's system. All of these players are seen as important players for Bolton for the current season and the support from the board that Evatt has received is very impressive. Part of this money has been funded from the Bolton bond scheme, this is where fans can invest an after 5 years they will see a full return on their investment but this should generate income for the Bolton. They can use this money to assist in promotion and they will receive a big financial award for this.
Thanks for reading this, if you want to see more, check me out on twitter (here) and follow the Fanzone Pod on all platforms.
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